ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎی ﻣﺒﺘﻨﻲ ﺑﺮ ﻛﺮﻳﺠﻴﻨﮓ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻲ( زﻣﻴﻦآﻣﺎر ) در ﺑﺮآورد ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﺎرش ﺑﺮای ﻛﺸﺖ ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰه ﮔﻨﺪم در اﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﻠﺴﺘﺎن
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عنوان دوره: سیزدهمین کنگره زراعت و اصلاح نباتات ایران
نویسندگان
1داﻧﺸﺠﻮی ﻛﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ارﺷﺪ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﻛﺸﺎورزی اﻛﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﻋﻠﻮم ﻛﺸﺎورزی و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﮔﺮﮔﺎن
2داﻧﺸﻴﺎر ﮔﺮوه زراﻋﺖ، داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﻋﻠﻮم ﻛﺸﺎورزی و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﮔﺮگان
3اﺳﺘﺎد ﮔﺮوه زراﻋﺖ، داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﻋﻠﻮم ﻛﺸﺎورزی و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﮔﺮگان
4ﻛﺎرﺷﻨﺎس ارﺷﺪ اداره ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ اﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﻠﺴﺘﺎن
چکیده
ﻫﺪف از اﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ اراﻳﻪ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﺪل از ﻣﺪلﻫﺎی ﻛﺮﻳﺠﻴﻨﮓ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﻪ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﻴﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﺮای ﺑﺮآورد ﺗﻮزﻳﻊ ﺑﺎرش ﺟﻬﺖ ﻛﺸﺖ ﮔﻨﺪم ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰه در اراﺿﻲ زراﻋﻲ اﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﻠﺴﺘﺎن ﺑﻮد. ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر از اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺗﻌﺪاد 50 اﻳﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﺑﺎرانﺳﻨﺠﻲ و ﺳﻴﻨﻮﭘﺘﻴﻚ اﺳﺘﺎن اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه و ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﻓﺼﻞ رﺷﺪ ﮔﻴﺎه ﻣﺪﻧﻈﺮ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺑﺮای ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ، ﻣﻘﺪار ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺧﻄﺎی ﻣﻄﻠﻖ )MAE(،ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ اﻧﺤﺮاف ﺧﻄﺎ )MBE( و رﻳﺸﻪ دوم ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ﺧﻄﺎ )RMSE( ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﻛﻪ ﻣﺪل J-Bessel دارای ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻛﺎرﻛﺮد )ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺧﻄﺎ( ﺑﻮد. ﭘﺲ از ﺗﻬﻴﻪ ﻻﻳﻪ رﺳﺘﺮی ﺑﺎرش ﺑﺮای اراﺿﻲ زراﻋﻲ ﻣﺤﺪوده ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ، اﻳﻦ ﻻﻳﻪ ﺑﺮای ﻓﺼﻞ رﺷﺪ ﮔﻨﺪم ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰه اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس ﻧﻘﺸﻪ ﺑﺎرش، ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺰان ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻲ اﺳﺘﺎن ﺗﻌﻠﻖ داﺷﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺖ از دﻳﺪﮔﺎه ﺑﺎرش ﺑﻪﻋﻨﻮان ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ اراﺿﻲ ﺑﺮای ﻛﺎﺷﺖ ﮔﻨﺪم ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰه در اﺳﺘﺎن ﮔﻠﺴﺘﺎن ﺗﺸﺨﻴﺺ داده ﺷﺪ. ﻛﻤﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺰان ﺑﺎرش ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺷﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﺳﺘﺎن ﺗﻌﻠﻖ داﺷﺖ.
کلیدواژه ها
Title
Assessment of Universal Kriging-based models to estimate spatial distribution of rainfall in order to winter wheat cultivation in Golestan province
Authors
Abstract
Abstract:
This study was aimed to provide the best model among Universal Kriging-based, models using Geographical Information System (GIS) for estimating rainfall distribution in winter wheat cultivated lands of Golestan province. Fifty synoptic and rain-based stations were used. Data were provided base on growing season. Mean Absolute Error, Mean Bias Error and Root Mean Square Error were used as statistical indices to evaluate different models. The results indicated that J-Bessel model had the least error. Rainfall raster layer, was provided for agricultural lands of study area, and then was presented base on rainfall during winter wheat growing season. Base on provided map, the maximum of rainfall is related to south part of the study area, while the least value was attributed to north areas. This also was true in respect to occupied area. Thus, in regard to rainfall, areas located in south parts of the study area were detected as the most appropriate areas for winter wheat cultivation in the Golestan province.
This study was aimed to provide the best model among Universal Kriging-based, models using Geographical Information System (GIS) for estimating rainfall distribution in winter wheat cultivated lands of Golestan province. Fifty synoptic and rain-based stations were used. Data were provided base on growing season. Mean Absolute Error, Mean Bias Error and Root Mean Square Error were used as statistical indices to evaluate different models. The results indicated that J-Bessel model had the least error. Rainfall raster layer, was provided for agricultural lands of study area, and then was presented base on rainfall during winter wheat growing season. Base on provided map, the maximum of rainfall is related to south part of the study area, while the least value was attributed to north areas. This also was true in respect to occupied area. Thus, in regard to rainfall, areas located in south parts of the study area were detected as the most appropriate areas for winter wheat cultivation in the Golestan province.
Keywords
rainfall, geostatic interpolation, GIS, Triticum aestivum